Home MMA Betting General Gambling Case Study: Betting the Fight with Largest Line at each UFC

Gambling Case Study: Betting the Fight with Largest Line at each UFC

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Gambling Case Study: Betting the Fight with Largest Line at each UFC

As of Oct 19, 2009, year-to-date, there have been 15 UFC events. Obviously, each of the events had a fight on it that had the largest lines associated with it or what you could consider to be the biggest “mismatch on paper”. Did you ever wonder how you would do if you blindly bet on the favorite giving huge odds, or bet on the underdog getting huge odds, in the fight on each UFC card with the largest lines? There were some whopper lines in play considering this betting strategy – Jon Fitch at -650 in UFC 94, as well as Brandon Vera and Cain Velasquez each boasting -580 in a few of their fights. Betting on these fights is a risk vs. reward exercise. Playing the huge favorites was of small risk and a highly likely winner – in fact, 13 of the 15 largest line fight winners were the favorites. The rub here is that with huge odds in their favor, their payouts were often minuscule. Conversely, betting the underdog in these fights was a risky play – it had the potential of huge payouts, but, not surprisingly, that occurred only twice in 15 fights.

The results of using either MMA betting strategy is listed below, and to Vegas’ credit, pretty close to an even payout. Blindly betting the favorite in each of these fights would provide a modest gain of almost $90 over the course of 15 fights if betting $100 on each huge favorite. That’ll cover the pizza and beer for the year end UFC card. However, blindly betting the underdog in each of these fights wouldn’t be such a good idea – you’d be lighter about $500 over the long haul. As always, the numbers never lie.

By the Numbers:
15 fights total – 13 favorites won, 2 underdogs won
–> $100 wagered on the favorite in the fight with the largest line in each UFC would have resulted in winning $87.63 total
–> $100 wagered on the underdog in the fight with the largest line in each UFC would have resulted in losing $500 total

Event: Sep 19, 2009 – UFC 103: Franklin vs. Belfort
Fight with Largest Line: Jim Miller (-435) def. Steve Lopez (+335) via TKO (Injury) – Round 2, 0:48
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Miller) Result: Wins $22.99
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Lopez) Result: Loses $100

Event: Sep 16, 2009 – UFC Fight Night 19: Diaz vs. Guillard
Fight with Largest Line: Mike Pierce (+375) def. Brock Larson (-455) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Larson) Result: Loses $100
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Pierce) Result: Wins $375

Event: Aug 29, 2009 – UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira
Fight with Largest Line: Gabriel Gonzaga (-360) def. Chris Tuchscherer (+300) via TKO (Punches) – Round 1, 4:27
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Gonzaga) Result: Wins $27.78
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Tuchscherer) Result: Loses $100

Event: Aug 08, 2009 – UFC 101: Declaration
Fight with Largest Line: George Sotiropoulos (-380) def. George Roop (+260) via Submission (kimura) – Round 2, 1:59
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Sotiropoulos) Result: Wins $26.32
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Roop) Result: Loses $100

Event: Jul 11, 2009 – UFC 100
Fight with Largest Line: Jon Jones (-440) def. Jake O’Brien (+350) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) – Round 2, 2:43
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Jones) Result: Wins $22.73
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (O’Brien) Result: Loses $100

Event: Jun 20, 2009 – The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale
Fight with Largest Line: Diego Sanchez (-300) def. Clay Guida (-240) via Split Decision Split Decision (28-29, 29-27, 29-28)
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Sanchez) Result: Wins $33.33
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Guida) Result: Loses $100

Event: Jun 13, 2009 – UFC 99: Franklin vs. Silva
Fight with Largest Line: Paul Kelly (-425) def. Roli Delgado (+320) via Unanimous Decision
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Kelly) Result: Wins $23.53
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Delgado) Result: Loses $100

Event: May 23, 2009 – UFC 98: Evans vs. Machida
Fight with Largest Line: Brock Larson (-475) def. Mike Pyle (+325) via Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) – Round 1, 3:06
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Larson) Result: Wins $21.05
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Pyle) Result: Loses $100

Event: Apr 18, 2009 – UFC 97: Redemption
Fight with Largest Line: Anderson Silva (-500) def. Thales Leites (+400) via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47, 50-46)
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Silva) Result: Wins $20
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Leites) Result: Loses $100

Event: Apr 01, 2009 – UFC Fight Night 18: Condit vs. Kampmann
Fight with Largest Line: Brock Larson (-515) def. Jesse Sanders (+375) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) – Round 1, 2:01
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Larson) Result: Wins $19.42
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Sanders) Result: Loses $100

Event: Mar 07, 2009 – UFC 96: Jackson vs. Jardine
Fight with Largest Line: Brandon Vera (-580) def. Michael Patt (+440) via TKO (Leg Kicks) – Round, 1:27
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Vera) Result: Wins $17.24
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Patt) Result: Loses $100

Event: Feb 21, 2009 – UFC 95: Sanchez vs. Stevenson
Fight with Largest Line: Paulo Thiago (+425) def. Josh Koscheck (-550) via KO (Punches) – Round 1, 3:29
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Koscheck) Result: Loses $100
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Thiago) Result: Wins $425

Event: Feb 07, 2009 – UFC Fight Night 17: Lauzon vs. Stephens
Fight with Largest Line: Cain Velasquez (-580) def. Denis Stojnic (+415) via TKO (Punches) – Round 2, 2:34
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Velasquez) Result: Wins $17.24
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Stojnic) Result: Loses $100

Event: Jan 31, 2009 – UFC 94: St. Pierre vs. Penn II
Fight with Largest Line: Jon Fitch (-650) def. Akihiro Gono (+440) via Unanimous Decision
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Fitch) Result: Wins $15.38
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Gono) Result: Loses $100

Event: Jan 17, 2009 – UFC 93: Franklin vs. Henderson
Fight with Largest Line: Martin Kampmann (-485) def. Alexandre Barros (+350) via TKO (Punches) – Round 2, 3:07
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Favorite (Kampmann) Result: Wins $20.62
–> Betting $100 on Fight with Largest Line Underdog (Barros) Result: Loses $100

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