Moose’s Post-Event Analysis: WEC 43 – Cerrone vs. Henderson

SAN ANTONIO, TX - OCTOBER 10: (R-L) Ben Henderson kicks Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone on October 10, 2009 in San Antonio, Texas. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images)

Analysis:
Underdog players would have cashed in on this event – 4 of 10 underdogs won. The big money hit for those playing underdogs was Mackens Semerzier (+525) shocking Wagnney Fabiano (-825). Line shopping that fight may have paid out as high as +650 I’ve been told. Ben Henderson (+285) added to the underdog party as did Dave Jensen (a negative underdog at -105) and Eddie Wineland (+120). The main event was an incredible five round war – Cerrone had Henderson in multiple submissions throughout the fight but couldn’t finish, and Henderson outstruck the Muay Thai specialist. Although I had Cerrone winning 48-47 (3 rounds to 2), all three judges felt otherwise and awarded the decision to Henderson. Can’t wait for the rematch.

Summary of Moose’s Recommended Plays:
Cerrone (-350) over Henderson (+285). Result: Loss – Bet 100, lost 100
–> Moose’s WEC 43 total: -100 (1 loss)

By the Numbers:
10 fights total – 6 favorites won, 4 underdogs won
$100 wagered on the favorite in each fight would have resulted in losing $175.55 total
$100 wagered on the underdog in each fight would have resulted in winning $435 total

Results:
Benson Henderson (+285) def. Donald Cerrone (-350) via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
Dave Jansen (-105) def. Rich Crunkilton (-125) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Rafael Assuncao (-500) def. Yves Jabouin (+325) via Split Decision (30-27, 27-30, 30-27)
Damacio Page (-340) def. Will Campuzano (+260) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) – Round 1, 1:02
Anthony Njokuani (-220) def. Muhsin Corbbrey (+180) via TKO (strikes) – Round 2, 1:42
Scott Jorgensen (-365) def. Noah Thomas (+285) via TKO (Strikes) – Round 1, 3:13
Mackens Semerzier (+525) def. Wagnney Fabiano (-825) via Submission (Triangle Choke) – Round 1, 2:14
Eddie Wineland (+120) def. Manny Tapia (-150) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Charlie Valencia (-325) def. Coty Wheeler (+250) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Deividas Taurosevicius (-140) def. Javier Vazquez (+110) via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

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