Moose’s Post-Event Analysis: UFC 104 – Machida vs. Rua

UFC 104 is in the books, and wow, what a great night of fights capped off by a sketchy decision in the night’s main event. For those that didn’t plunk down the Pay-Per-View cash, they missed a great performance by Shogun as he punished Machida’s legs and midsection with kicks and completely pushed the pace throughout the five round title fight. At the end of the fight, Rua looked as if he could go another few rounds, while Machida sported a bloody lip, noticeable limp, and a dejected look. Most felt that Rua solidly won three of the five rounds, if not four rounds. On the level of the Matt Hamill / Michael Bisping decision, all three judges must have been tokin’ with Rogan pre-event as they inexplicably awarded 48-47 verdicts to Machida. An immediate rematch is already in the works. In other action, Ben Rothwell made his long awaited UFC debut, and was brutalized by Cain Velasquez with surprising ease. Rothwell showed zero takedown defense against the wrestling badass, and would have been better suited skipping the fight and getting drunk at the hotel bar. No such luck, he decided to show and was manhandled by the rising star. Other impressive wins included Anthony Johnson turning out Yoshiyuki Yoshida’s lights in the first, Joe Stevenson stopping grinder Spencer Fisher via elbows, Gleison Tibau working incredible takedowns to dominate Josh Neer, and Chael Sonnen outworking Yushin Okami via unanimous decision. Also of note, Ryan Bader looked gassed and sloppy in a win against an overmatched Red Schafer and a tearful Pat Barry bested Antoni Hardonk despite taking a significant eye poke. From a gambler’s perspective, it was an odd card. The favorite won all five main card fights, while the underdogs won four of six preliminary card fights. For those that took my advice, you won three of four fights – including an underdog winner in Pat Barry. My recommended plays of Machida at -375 (hey – a win’s a win), Stevenson at -270, and Pat Barry at +125 were all big, fat winners, while my only blunder was listening to Monte Cox pimp his fighter and take the bait into believing that Rothwell had something, anything for Velasquez. He didn’t, although I’ll take winning three out of four any day. Specifics follow.

Summary of Moose’s Recommended Plays:
Machida (-375) over Rua (+290). Result: Win – Bet 125, won 33
Stevenson (-270) over Fisher (+210). Result: Win – Bet 125, won 46
Rothwell (+275) over Valasquez (-350). Result: Loss – Bet 125, lost 125
Barry (+120) over Hardonk (-150). Result: Win – Bet 125, won 150
–> Moose’s UFC 104 total: +104 (3 wins, 1 loss)

By the Numbers:
11 fights total – 7 favorites won, 4 underdogs won
$100 wagered on the favorite in each fight would have resulted in losing $109.21 total
$100 wagered on the underdog in each fight would have resulted in losing $50 total

Lyoto Machida (-375) def. Mauricio Rua (+290) via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
Cain Velasquez (-350) def. Ben Rothwell (+275) via TKO (Punches) – Round 2, 0:58
Gleison Tibau (-135) def. Josh Neer (+105) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Joe Stevenson (-270) def. Spencer Fisher (+210) via TKO (Elbows) – Round 1, 4:03
Anthony Johnson (-450) def. Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+300) via KO (Punch) – Round 1, 0:41
Ryan Bader (-450) defeats Eric Schafer (+300) by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-26, 30-27)
Pat Barry (+120) def. Antoni Hardonk (-150) by TKO (Punches) – Round 2, 2:30
Chael Sonnen (+200) def. Yushin Okami (-260) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Jorge Rivera (+140) def. Rob Kimmons (-170) via TKO (Punches) – Round 3, 1:53
Kyle Kingsbury (-125) def. Razak Al-Hassan (-105) via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Stefan Struve (+190) def. Chase Gormley (-250) via Submission (Triangle Choke) – Round 1, 4:04

Lines provided by Bodog

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