Moose’s Post-Event Analysis: UFC 107 – Penn vs. Sanchez

UFC 107: Penn vs. Sanchez was held last Saturday in Memphis, TN and for those that plunked down the event ticket or PPV cost, they were treated to one of the best night of fights from the UFC in recent memory. Only four of the eleven fights went to decision, and of those fights, two of the decisions were nail biters. The rest of the fights featured slick submissions, exciting stoppages, heavy leather, and a fair amount of blood. Although three fights featured pretty tight lines, underdog bettors took it on the chin due to ten of the eleven fights being won by favorites, with only DaMarques Johnson pulling an upset.

BJ Penn (-285) dominated an intense, yet completely overmatched Diego Sanchez (+225) leading to a stoppage by cut in the fifth round. Penn’s boxing looked better than ever, as did his conditioning – the work with Marv Marinovich seems to be really paying off. Sanchez’s cut was one of the year’s nastiest, but the verdict was already cast in the highly anticipated showdown. Penn’s getting close to completely clearing out the Lightweight division and may soon seek challenges in other weight classes (or catch weight fights).

Frank Mir (-210) backed up a ton of pre-fight trash talk and choked out Frenchman Cheick Kongo (+170) in just 1:12. Mir floored Kongo with a punch, then pounced to sink in a guillotine choke… hats off to Kongo for going to sleep instead of tapping.

Biggest favorite of the event Jon Fitch (-600) bested a game Mike Pierce (+400) via UD. Although Fitch won 29-28 on all three judge’s scorecards, most observers felt that Pierce comfortably won the third round and should make some noise in the Welterweight division in the near future. Don’t look for huge underdog lines on Pierce anymore.

Kenny Florian (-205) looked better than ever in dismantling the always amped Clay Guida (+165). One of Florian’s signature razor-sharp elbows opened a huge gash in Guida’s mane, but it was a straight right from Florian that dropped his opponent to the canvas in the second round and allowed him to sink in a rear naked choke against the usually difficult to stop Guida. Florian created controversy by leaving Team Sityodtong recently, but looked sharper than ever in the win.

Tall Dutchman Stephan Struve (-125) did just enough to get the majority decision over fan favorite Paul Buentello (-105). Struve was unable to catch Buentello with one of his sneaky triangles or guillotines, but threw enough punches and kicks to edge the (ex?)-American Kickboxing Academy product.

Tennessee favorite Alan Belcher (-125) put on one of his most impressive performances in the UFC stopping the always tough Wilson Gouveia (-105) via strikes in the first round. Belcher has now won six of 10 in the octagon.

Matt Wiman (-340) had his way with Shane Nelson (+260) in route to winning all three rounds and a unanimous decision. Handsome Matt has now won five of his last seven in the octagon.

Big favorite Johny Hendricks (-500) won his seventh straight easily via UD, including two in a row in the UFC, and may now find himself fighting on the main card from here on out.

In the remaining fights, Rousimar Palhares (-340) went into the second with Ricardo Funch (+260) before pulling a nice heel hook, DaMarques Johnson (+185) came out on top via triangle choke in a great back and forth one round battle against a sharp Edgar Garcia, and TJ Grant (-125) stopped Kevin Burns (+105) via strikes just before the first round ended.

Summary of Moose’s Recommended Plays:
Mir (-240) over Kongo (+190). Bet $240, won $100
Florian (-205) over Guida (+165). Bet $205, won $100
Struve (-120) over Buentello (-110). Bet $55, won $45
–> Moose’s UFC 107 – Penn vs. Sanchez total: +$245 (3 wins, 0 losses)

By the Numbers:
11 fights total – 10 favorites won, 1 underdog won
$100 wagered on the favorite in each fight would have resulted in winning $360 total
$100 wagered on the underdog in each fight would have resulted in losing $815 total

BJ Penn (-285) def. Diego Sanchez (+225) via TKO (Cut) – Round 5, 2:37
Frank Mir (-210) def. Cheick Kongo (+170) via Submission (Guillotine Choke) – Round 1, 1:12
Jon Fitch (-600) def. Mike Pierce (+400) via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Kenny Florian (-225) def. Clay Guida (+185) via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) – Round 2, 2:19
Stefan Struve (-125) def. Paul Buentello (-105) via Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
Alan Belcher (-125) def. Wilson Gouveia (-105) via TKO (Strikes) – Round 1, 3:03
Matt Wiman (-340) def. Shane Nelson (+260) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Johny Hendricks (-500) def. Ricardo Funch (+325) via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
Rousimar Palhares (-340) def. Lucio Linhares (+260) via Submission (Heel Hook) – Round 2, 3:21
DaMarques Johnson (+185) def. Edgar Garcia (-225) via Submission (Triangle Choke) – Round 1, 4:03
TJ Grant (-125) def. Kevin Burns (-105) via TKO (Strikes) – Round 1, 4:57

Lines provided by Bodog

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